Rolling bets are popular in sports betting, where bettors may choose to link several games or horse races together in a series of bets to increase the potential payout. Our rolling show bet strategy is based on the belief that the heavy favorite will almost certainly finish in the top three to secure a small return on our cumulative investment.
How the BettingToShow.com Rolling Strategy works:
- Initial Bet: You start by placing an initial 20-dollar show bet from the list of races posted on our Daily Horse Racing Picks Blog. A show bet is a type of wager where you select a horse to finish in the top three positions (first, second, or third) in a race. It is a relatively conservative bet that offers a higher chance of winning but a lower potential payout. In our case, we are assuming the most conservative return, 5 percent, for each wager.
- Rolling Over: Instead of cashing out your winnings, you immediately reinvest the entire amount, including the initial stake, into another show bet on the next horse race that meets our wager criteria. This process is repeated for each successive bet.
- Accumulating Winnings: The winnings from each consecutive bet are added to the stake for the next bet, creating a cumulative effect. By making one hundred consecutive winning wagers, the potential return is over 2,500 dollars and much larger compared to individual bets. We will track our success on the Wagers & Attempts page.
We are taking the rolling show bet strategy to the extreme by trying to win one hundred in a row. In fact, the wagers could be considered a bridge jumper bet as we get further in the rolling show bet process. A “bridge jumper” bet is described as placing a large amount of money on a horse to show. The name “bridge jumper” originates from the notion that these bettors may be so confident in their selection that they would metaphorically jump off a bridge if the horse fails to finish in the top three.
It’s important to note that this strategy is considered to be high-risk, as there is still a small chance that the favored horse may not finish in the top three due to unforeseen circumstances, such as injuries, bad racing luck, or unexpected performance from other horses. The increased risk associated with each additional bet means rolling bets require a thorough analysis of the likelihood of success for each individual bet.
To partially mitigate this risk we will only wager on races that provide a heavy favorite maximizing the chance of winning. In horse racing, a heavy morning line favorite refers to a horse that is predicted to have the highest chance of winning based on the morning line odds, which are set by an experienced handicapper or oddsmaker before the race begins.
Several factors contribute to a horse becoming a heavy morning line favorite:
- Past Performance: The most significant factor influencing a horse’s morning line odds is its past performance. Horses with a consistent record of winning or placing highly in races, especially against strong competition, are likely to be favored. If a horse has recently won multiple races or has a high win percentage, it increases the likelihood of being the morning line favorite.
- Class and Form: The class of the race also plays a role. If a horse is moving up to a higher class and has been performing exceptionally well in lower-level races, it may be considered a strong contender. Additionally, recent form, which indicates a horse’s current level of fitness and performance, is taken into account. Horses that have been in good form leading up to the race are more likely to be favored.
- Jockey and Trainer: The reputation and skill of the jockey and trainer involved can influence a horse’s odds. Accomplished jockeys and successful trainers who have a history of winning races are more likely to attract attention and increase the chances of their horse being favored.
- Track Conditions: The condition of the track, including the surface (dirt, turf, synthetic), can affect a horse’s performance. Some horses excel on particular track surfaces or under specific conditions, such as fast or muddy tracks. If a horse has proven success on similar track conditions, it can increase its likelihood of being the morning line favorite.
- Public Perception: The opinions and perceptions of the betting public can impact a horse’s morning line odds. If a horse is highly publicized, has a large fan following, or is associated with a well-known owner or breeder, it may attract more bets and subsequently be favored in the morning line.
It’s important to note that the morning line odds are not always an accurate reflection of a horse’s actual chances of winning. They are simply a prediction made by the oddsmaker before the betting begins. As more bets are placed and the odds change, the final odds at post time may differ significantly from the morning line odds.
BettingToShow.com Race Criteria
Field – The field or the number of horses in a given race needs to be 6 or less. There could be an outlier with a seven or eight-horse field but ideally, we want to filter as many variables as possible and are looking to beat 2 or 3 horses.
Morning Line (ML) – We are only looking for the most heavily favored horses, ideally with morning line odds of 1/1 or lower. Our wager schedule assumes the minimum payout of $2.10 on a $2.00 bet so preservation of principal is more important than a higher payout.
Featured Tracks – We are only wagering on featured tracks in North America like Belmont, Churchill Downs, Keeneland, Laurel Park, Remington Park, Santa Anita, and Woodbine.
Distance – 6.5 furlongs or longer is preferred so a slow start will give the favorite time to recover and hit the board.
Age – 3 years old or older with a larger sample size of races to analyze past performances.
Race Type – We are looking for higher quality races like Stakes races but may include all types.
Purse – Stakes races and races with larger purses are preferred. Lower priced claiming races are less desirable.
Wager Schedule/Payout Assumptions
Below is the wager schedule with estimated payouts using the minimum amount of $2.10 to be conservative. I’ll need to make 100 winning bets in a row to reach the return on investment goal of over 12,790% by making over $2,500.
To calculate the final amount after 100 bets where you bet an initial amount of 20 and reinvest all winnings at a 5% return for each subsequent bet, you can use the formula for compound interest:
A=P(1+rn)ntA = P \left(1 + \frac{r}{n}\right)^{nt}A=P(1+nr)nt
Where:
- AAA is the amount of money accumulated after n bets, including interest.
- PPP is the principal amount (the initial amount of money, which is 20).
- rrr is the annual interest rate (in decimal form, so 5% becomes 0.05).
- nnn is the number of times the interest is compounded per year.
- ttt is the time the money is invested or borrowed for, in years.
In this case, for each bet:
- The interest rate per bet rrr is 0.05 (5%).
- The number of bets nnn is 1 for each iteration.
- The number of iterations ttt is 100.
Thus, the formula simplifies to:
A=P(1+r)n×tA = P \left(1 + r\right)^{n \times t}A=P(1+r)n×t
Substituting the given values: A=20(1+0.05)100A = 20 \left(1 + 0.05\right)^{100}A=20(1+0.05)100
Let’s compute this.
After 100 bets with an initial bet of 20 and reinvesting all winnings at a 5% return per bet, the final amount would be approximately $2,578.05 when adjusting bets to even dollar amounts.
| Bet # | Wagered | Payout | ROI |
| 1 | $ 20.00 | $ 21.00 | 5% |
| 2 | $ 21.00 | $ 22.05 | 10% |
| 3 | $ 22.00 | $ 23.15 | 16% |
| 4 | $ 23.00 | $ 24.30 | 22% |
| 5 | $ 24.00 | $ 25.50 | 28% |
| 6 | $ 25.00 | $ 26.75 | 34% |
| 7 | $ 26.00 | $ 28.05 | 40% |
| 8 | $ 28.00 | $ 29.45 | 47% |
| 9 | $ 29.00 | $ 30.90 | 55% |
| 10 | $ 30.00 | $ 32.40 | 62% |
| 11 | $ 32.00 | $ 34.00 | 70% |
| 12 | $ 34.00 | $ 35.70 | 79% |
| 13 | $ 35.00 | $ 37.45 | 87% |
| 14 | $ 37.00 | $ 39.30 | 97% |
| 15 | $ 39.00 | $ 41.25 | 106% |
| 16 | $ 41.00 | $ 43.30 | 117% |
| 17 | $ 43.00 | $ 45.45 | 127% |
| 18 | $ 45.00 | $ 47.70 | 139% |
| 19 | $ 47.00 | $ 50.05 | 150% |
| 20 | $ 50.00 | $ 52.55 | 163% |
| 21 | $ 52.00 | $ 55.15 | 176% |
| 22 | $ 55.00 | $ 57.90 | 190% |
| 23 | $ 57.00 | $ 60.75 | 204% |
| 24 | $ 60.00 | $ 63.75 | 219% |
| 25 | $ 63.00 | $ 66.90 | 235% |
| 26 | $ 66.00 | $ 70.20 | 251% |
| 27 | $ 70.00 | $ 73.70 | 269% |
| 28 | $ 73.00 | $ 77.35 | 287% |
| 29 | $ 77.00 | $ 81.20 | 306% |
| 30 | $ 81.00 | $ 85.25 | 326% |
| 31 | $ 85.00 | $ 89.50 | 348% |
| 32 | $ 89.00 | $ 93.95 | 370% |
| 33 | $ 93.00 | $ 98.60 | 393% |
| 34 | $ 98.00 | $ 103.50 | 418% |
| 35 | $ 103.00 | $ 108.65 | 443% |
| 36 | $ 108.00 | $ 114.05 | 470% |
| 37 | $ 114.00 | $ 119.75 | 499% |
| 38 | $ 119.00 | $ 125.70 | 529% |
| 39 | $ 125.00 | $ 131.95 | 560% |
| 40 | $ 131.00 | $ 138.50 | 593% |
| 41 | $ 138.00 | $ 145.40 | 627% |
| 42 | $ 145.00 | $ 152.65 | 663% |
| 43 | $ 152.00 | $ 160.25 | 701% |
| 44 | $ 160.00 | $ 168.25 | 741% |
| 45 | $ 168.00 | $ 176.65 | 783% |
| 46 | $ 176.00 | $ 185.45 | 827% |
| 47 | $ 185.00 | $ 194.70 | 874% |
| 48 | $ 194.00 | $ 204.40 | 922% |
| 49 | $ 204.00 | $ 214.60 | 973% |
| 50 | $ 214.00 | $ 225.30 | 1,027% |
| 51 | $ 225.00 | $ 236.55 | 1,083% |
| 52 | $ 236.00 | $ 248.35 | 1,142% |
| 53 | $ 248.00 | $ 260.75 | 1,204% |
| 54 | $ 260.00 | $ 273.75 | 1,269% |
| 55 | $ 273.00 | $ 287.40 | 1,337% |
| 56 | $ 287.00 | $ 301.75 | 1,409% |
| 57 | $ 301.00 | $ 316.80 | 1,484% |
| 58 | $ 316.00 | $ 332.60 | 1,563% |
| 59 | $ 332.00 | $ 349.20 | 1,646% |
| 60 | $ 349.00 | $ 366.65 | 1,733% |
| 61 | $ 366.00 | $ 384.95 | 1,825% |
| 62 | $ 384.00 | $ 404.15 | 1,921% |
| 63 | $ 404.00 | $ 424.35 | 2,022% |
| 64 | $ 424.00 | $ 445.55 | 2,128% |
| 65 | $ 445.00 | $ 467.80 | 2,239% |
| 66 | $ 467.00 | $ 491.15 | 2,356% |
| 67 | $ 491.00 | $ 515.70 | 2,479% |
| 68 | $ 515.00 | $ 541.45 | 2,607% |
| 69 | $ 541.00 | $ 568.50 | 2,743% |
| 70 | $ 568.00 | $ 596.90 | 2,885% |
| 71 | $ 596.00 | $ 626.70 | 3,034% |
| 72 | $ 626.00 | $ 658.00 | 3,190% |
| 73 | $ 658.00 | $ 690.90 | 3,355% |
| 74 | $ 690.00 | $ 725.40 | 3,527% |
| 75 | $ 725.00 | $ 761.65 | 3,708% |
| 76 | $ 761.00 | $ 799.70 | 3,899% |
| 77 | $ 799.00 | $ 839.65 | 4,098% |
| 78 | $ 839.00 | $ 881.60 | 4,308% |
| 79 | $ 881.00 | $ 925.65 | 4,528% |
| 80 | $ 925.00 | $ 971.90 | 4,760% |
| 81 | $ 971.00 | $ 1,020.45 | 5,002% |
| 82 | $ 1,020.00 | $ 1,071.45 | 5,257% |
| 83 | $ 1,071.00 | $ 1,125.00 | 5,525% |
| 84 | $ 1,125.00 | $ 1,181.25 | 5,806% |
| 85 | $ 1,181.00 | $ 1,240.30 | 6,102% |
| 86 | $ 1,240.00 | $ 1,302.30 | 6,412% |
| 87 | $ 1,302.00 | $ 1,367.40 | 6,737% |
| 88 | $ 1,367.00 | $ 1,435.75 | 7,079% |
| 89 | $ 1,435.00 | $ 1,507.50 | 7,438% |
| 90 | $ 1,507.00 | $ 1,582.85 | 7,814% |
| 91 | $ 1,582.00 | $ 1,661.95 | 8,210% |
| 92 | $ 1,661.00 | $ 1,745.00 | 8,625% |
| 93 | $ 1,745.00 | $ 1,832.25 | 9,061% |
| 94 | $ 1,832.00 | $ 1,923.85 | 9,519% |
| 95 | $ 1,923.00 | $ 2,020.00 | 10,000% |
| 96 | $ 2,020.00 | $ 2,121.00 | 10,505% |
| 97 | $ 2,121.00 | $ 2,227.05 | 11,035% |
| 98 | $ 2,227.00 | $ 2,338.40 | 11,592% |
| 99 | $ 2,338.00 | $ 2,455.30 | 12,177% |
| 100 | $ 2,455.00 | $ 2,578.05 | 12,790% |
Betting To Show 